Jake Hanson, M.A. Candidate in Democracy in Governance, Georgetown University

Colloquially termed the “Year of Elections”, 2024 yielded significant challenges to democratic practices across the world. Even as voter turnout reached record levels across the board, many of the succeeding actors pose an inherent threat to the survival of these democracies and the institutions that seek to keep executive powers in check.

On February 14, 2024, former minister of defense Prabowo Subianto succeeded president Joko Widodo in becoming Indonesia’s eighth president. A controversial figure, surrounded both by allegations and convictions of human rights abuse, Prabowo rose to the country’s highest office with almost 60% of voters behind him^[1]. Some attribute this in part due to his choice in running mate, former President Widodo’s eldest son, Gibran Rakabuming Raka^[2]. Despite Raka, 37, being below the minimum age to run for national office, Indonesia’s Supreme Court – led by Widodo’s brother-in-law – ruled to change the requirement so Raka could remain on the ticket^[3].

Erosion of Rights and Military Infringement

Democratic ideals and institutions were significantly eroded during former President Widodo’s time in office, in tandem with the infringement of the military into domestic political affairs and a decline in the capabilities of watchdog media. Inherently through Raka succeeding as Vice President, it could also be viewed as the construction of a political dynasty. Prabowo is expected to cut thousands of local legislative positions and solve problems through use of physical force without going through democratic channels^[4].

Digital Media and the Spread of Disinformation

Indonesia’s electorate, composed of some 204 million registered voters, utilizes an open-list proportional system to select leaders to the national legislature and to local councils, while the presidency is obtained through popular vote^[5]. Prabowo, one of the three leading candidates, faced former governors of Jakarta and Central Java, Anies Baswedan and Ganjar Pranowo. While investigations into the final results did not yield significant results, reports have circulated of the use of political “buzzers” in assisting Prabowo’s third and only successful campaign. The Center for Strategic and International Studies^[6] describes buzzers as: “recruited individuals managing fake social media profiles, which amplify messages to influence and manipulate public opinion under clients’ orders.” (Seah, 2024). This is not the first time political candidates have used buzzers to gain popular support, but the threat to the democratic process is exacerbated by Prabowo’s position on key foreign policy issues and his vision for Indonesia moving forward.

Implications for Democracy and Foreign Relations

Prabowo’s rise to power despite accusations of human rights violations while serving as a general in the military is an ominous omen for the future of democracy in Indonesia. The role of public media and local journalism must be reinforced and supported by international actors in order to fulfill their role as watchdogs over the institutions that would seek to infringe upon the rights of the people they are meant to protect. The dominant power in Southeast Asia, Indonesia has the opportunity to present itself as a beacon of what democratic institutions can offer to the rest of the region; or can serve as an extension of backsliding demonstrated through Prabowo’s and Widodo’s consolidation of power^[7]. Having expressed disdain and dissatisfaction in foreign relationships with the United States and Japan, coupled with recent events in the United States including the foreign aid freeze, leaves the door open for China to step in and fill the gaps where others could not.

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^[1] Karmini, N. (2024, March 20). Prabowo Subianto’s election as Indonesia’s next president is official. Why is it being challenged? Associated Press. https://apnews.com/article/indonesia-president-election-challenge-explainer-4148eee7cd0c239a49624b8c6d119db3

^[2] Teresia, A., & Lamb, K. (2024, February 16). Indonesian president’s son also rises, but what will his role as new VP be?Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/indonesian-presidents-son-also-rises-what-will-his-role-new-vp-be-2024-02-16/

^[3] Kurlantzick, Joshua. “A Big Year for Asian Elections, but Not Necessarily for Democracy.” Council on Foreign Relations, 12 Dec. 2024, www.cfr.org/expert-brief/big-year-asian-elections-not-necessarily-democracy

^[4] Kurlantzick, J. (2024, February 14). Prabowo Wins. Does Indonesian Democracy Lose? Council on Foreign Relations. www.cfr.org/blog/prabowo-wins-does-indonesian-democracy-lose

^[5] Shidiq, R., Liu, D., & Yeung, J. (2024, February 9). Zooming in on the Digital Aspects of the Indonesian Elections 2024. Oxford Internet Institute. https://www.oii.ox.ac.uk/news-events/zooming-in-on-the-digital-aspects-of-the-indonesian-elections-2024/

^[6] Seah, N. (2024, December 17). Democracy in the Digital Age: How Buzzer Culture is Stinging Indonesia’s Democracy. Center for Strategic and International Studies. https://www.csis.org/blogs/new-perspectives-asia/democracy-digital-age-how-buzzer-culture-stinging-indonesias-democracy

^[7] Kurlantzick, Joshua. “Indonesia’s Presidential Election: The Old Guard Faces the New.” Council on Foreign Relations, 12 Jan. 2024, www.cfr.org/blog/indonesias-presidential-election-old-guard-faces-new.