Alberto Maresca, M.A. Candidate in Latin American Studies, CLAS Georgetown University
After his outstanding electoral victory on November 19, 2023, the newly elected Argentinian President, Javier Milei, defined himself as the first “liberal-libertarian” to reach office.[1] Until recently, arguments on Milei were drawn on analogies to Trump and Bolsonaro, with whom he shares a conservative political worldview. On the other hand, it is worth noting that, unlike Trump and Bolsonaro, Milei is unbalanced in his social considerations, with contradictions like a quite liberal approach to marriage but opposition to abortion; he criticizes the Catholic Church but is quite conservative on gender and sexuality.[2] It is important to remember that since the Argentinian primary elections, the PASO, held in August 2023, in which Milei was the most voted, he was defined as a far-right candidate.[3] His politically incorrect methodology played a significant role: The more he received critiques from the media or his political rivals, the bigger his consensus grew. Why did that happen? Because Argentinian voters, during this election, had a single and clear priority: to solve the economic crisis with any alternative to the current government.
Milei’s ideology is anti-everything. Despite the doubtable feasibility of his projects related to selling the Argentinian Central Bank or dollarizing the economy, his condemnation of the “political caste” – including the former President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, the incumbent Alberto Fernández and his direct opponent in the run-off, the last Minister of Economy, Sergio Massa – has been crucial for appealing to voters.[4] It is essential to understand how Milei earned 55.7% votes, against the 44.3% obtained by Sergio Massa. Young Argentinians between ages 16 and 34 composed the pillar of Milei’s victory in the run-off.[5] This demographic, an active and dynamic labor force, has been the most affected by Argentinian inflation. Young Argentinians have directly felt the mismanagement of the various governments since 2007 and even earlier if we consider those who lived through the 2001 crisis. Specifically, the economic effects of COVID-19 motivated even more Argentinians to move abroad to the rest of the Americas or Europe.[6] Hence, this sector of the Argentinian population not only paid the price of the peso currency devaluation but also witnessed an unprecedented emigration, leading them to see Milei as the only alternative to the political class responsible for the national decline. Their vote is not ideological nor identitarian, as in the case of Trump and Bolsonaro. It is instead a vote of protest and rage, or bronca as it is labeled in Argentina.
During the first round of elections, held in October 2023, Sergio Massa prevailed over Milei. This defeat caused an agreement between Milei’s La Libertad Avanza and Juntos por el Cambio, a conservative coalition around former President Mauricio Macri, which was seen as a betrayal of Milei’s claimed antagonism to all establishments.[7] This was only relevant for Peronist politicians, who tried to merge such discourse with the risks of Milei’s presidency in terms of destruction of the public sector and undermining of democracy forty years after Argentina recuperated its democratic system. All those speeches sound like nothing more than the wind to voters whose worries are primarily the economy and personal security. The evidence can be found in the aftermath of the last presidential debate, in which an unprepared Milei had to counter Massa’s broad knowledge of the state machine. However, to voters, Massa represented the Minister of Economy for a country with 140% inflation, whose understanding of the public system confirmed his guilt, being perceived as corrupted and involved as any other politician.[8]
In other words, Milei’s victory is an anti-political choice created by the public fatigue with political and economic failures by Argentinian politicians. Milei must now become a politician in all senses, having to deal with Congressional compromises and trying to avoid for himself the sentiment that drove his election: La bronca.
[1]. “Javier Milei dice ser un ‘liberal libertario’: ¿qué significa?,” CNN en Español, November 20, 2023, https://cnnespanol.cnn.com/2023/11/20/liberal-libertario-javier-milei-en-que-consiste-orix-arg/.
[2]. Thomas Kestler, “Radical, Nativist, Authoritarian—Or All of These? Assessing Recent Cases of Right-Wing Populism in Latin America,” Journal of Politics in Latin America 14, no. 3 (December 1, 2022): 289–310, https://doi.org/10.1177/1866802X221117565.
[3]. Nicolás Misculin, Eliana Raszewski, and Candelaria Grimberg, “Argentine Far-Right Outsider Javier Milei Posts Shock Win in Primary Election,” Reuters, August 14, 2023, https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/argentina-set-primary-vote-with-ruling-peronists-fighting-survival-2023-08-13/.
[4]. Jonas Bugtene Boulifa, “Paper Promises: The Effects of Inflation on Social Life in Buenos Aires, Argentina” (Master thesis, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, 2023), https://ntnuopen.ntnu.no/ntnu-xmlui/handle/11250/3080014.
[5]. Borja Andrino and Montse Hidalgo Pérez, “Mapa | ¿Quién ha votado a Milei? Así son sus apoyos por edad, género o territorio,” El País, November 21, 2023, https://elpais.com/argentina/2023-11-21/mapa-quien-ha-votado-a-milei-asi-son-sus-apoyos-por-edad-genero-o-territorio.html.According to El País and Encuestas Atlas, being the latter among the most recognized pollsters in Latin America, Milei’s voting intentions for Argentinians between 16-24 was 69% of the interviewed, 20% for Sergio Massa, while in the range 25-34, the 54% was for Milei and the 41% for Massa.
[6]. Josefina Gil Moreira and Natalia Louzau, “‘Chau Argentina’. Cuántos fueron, qué edad tienen y qué países eligieron los argentinos que decidieron emigrar,” La Nación, July 12, 2023, https://www.lanacion.com.ar/sociedad/chau-argentina-cuantos-fueron-que-edad-tienen-y-que-paises-eligieron-los-argentinos-que-decidieron-nid07072023/.
[7]. “‘Acuerdo con la casta’: Kicillof habló de la ‘traición’ de Macri, Bullrich y Milei por el balotaje,” Buenos Aires Noticia, October 31, 2023, https://buenosairesnoticia.com.ar/nota/3490/acuerdo-con-la-casta-kicillof-hablo-de-la-traicion-de-macri-bullrich-y-milei-por-el-balotaje/.
[8]. Mariano Schuster and Pablo Stefanoni, “El Huracán Milei Siete Claves de La Elección Argentina,” Nueva Sociedad, November 20, 2023, https://nuso.org/articulo/el-huracan-milei/.
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